Publish Time: 2020-11-18 Origin: Site
Recently, Frost & Sullivan, a world-renowned consulting organization, released its 8 predictions on the development trend of the medical industry in 2019. It is reported that its forecast accuracy rate for 2018 is as high as 98%.
As more new players join the medical industry, debates on topics such as artificial intelligence, medical staff and consumers, clinical and empathy, and machine intelligence will also become more intense.
Recently, Reenita Das, partner and senior vice president of the medical life science department of Frost & Sullivan, a world-renowned consulting firm, published his forecast for the development trend of the medical industry in 2019 in Forbes magazine. Das has more than 25 years of medical consulting experience in many countries in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Eastern Europe, and has been committed to exploring reverse innovation, integration issues and new business models.
Frost & Sullivan has written forecast reports for the medical industry every year for the past ten years. Looking back every year, the accuracy of these forecasts is gradually improving. The 2018 medical industry development forecast released by the company in December 2017 showed an accuracy rate of nearly 98%, and almost every forecast became a reality in 2018. To prepare for the future, people in the medical industry should not miss this article.
GAFA and BAT will start to dominate personalized care
In 2019, the core of the global medical industry will be value-oriented. Frost & Sullivan predicts that "result-based medicine" will become the focus of globalization. This will trigger the maturation of solution contracting risk sharing between suppliers and pharmaceutical and equipment manufacturers (Original Equipment Manufacturers, OEMs), thereby driving the supplier's business value growth. In addition, in the upcoming 2019 elections in emerging markets such as Asia, Africa, Central and Eastern European countries, lower-priced and higher-quality medical services will also be a key political agenda.
With the blurring of the boundaries between the retail, IT, and medical industries, in 2019, GAFA from the West, namely Google (Google), Apple (Apple), Facebook (Facebook) and Amazon (Amazon), and Eastern BAT, namely Baidu, Ali Health and Tencent, will begin to dominate the field of personalized care.
Non-traditional digital market providers, such as Alibaba Health, Tencent, Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and IBM, will dominate the home medical field, provide the necessary impetus to the public health system, and ensure the accessibility and availability of medical services Affordable.
Frost & Sullivan also predicts that future drug and equipment R&D investment will be more targeted to meet the unique needs of emerging Asian markets. The two technologies that have been hyped up in the medical field in the past ten years: artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain (blockchain), will face the test of reality in 2019.
In addition, nearly 80% of medical industry practitioners believe that the four technologies of artificial intelligence, big data analysis, mobile medical and wearable devices will change the development of the medical industry in 2019.
Here are 8 predictions for global healthcare in 2019:
Prediction 1: 15% of global medical expenditures will be linked to value-based models
In 2019, the healthcare industry will continue to shift to a value-oriented model. We expect that by the end of 2019, up to 15% of global medical expenditures will be linked to value/outcome-based medical care concepts in some form. For those countries (such as the United States, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, Germany, Canada, Japan, etc.) that currently spend nearly 10% or more of their GDP on medical expenditures, the driving force for this transformation will be even greater. urgent.
During 2019, the VBC initiative will continue to transition from economic models/cost-effective measures to more health outcomes and treatment priorities-through a data-driven risk-sharing framework and sustainable compensation models that benefit both providers and payers .
Prediction 2: Artificial intelligence used in medical information technology applications will exceed $1.7 billion
In 2019, the application of artificial intelligence in clinical and non-clinical cases will show more powerful results, further promoting the growth of its application in the medical field. It is expected that by the end of 2019, artificial intelligence for medical information technology applications will exceed 17 100 million U.S. dollars, and further, by running AI platforms in selected medical workflows, productivity will increase by 10-15% in the next 2-3 years. However, the pricing of AI solutions is still critical, because end users are often uncertain whether to invest additional budgets for such technologies, and cost-effective methods that can clarify the potential return on investment of both parties can maintain market growth.
Throughout 2019, AI and machine learning will further promote human-computer interaction, and the role of AI in the medical field will begin to reap results and rewards, especially in applications such as imaging diagnosis, drug development, and risk analysis.
Prediction 3: Out-of-hospital digital medical technology will grow by 30% and exceed USD 25 billion
In 2019, the application of digital health will continue to go far beyond traditional systems, allowing individuals to manage their own health. We speculate that by the end of 2019, digital medical technology for out-of-hospitals will increase by 30%, reaching a global market of more than 25 billion U.S. dollars. The cost burden caused by the increase in chronic disease health and population aging will be the cost of digital health solutions (such as RPM). Equipment, telemedicine health platforms, PERS and mHealth applications). In addition, favorable reimbursement policies for clinically relevant digital medical applications will continue to expand medical service models beyond physical medicine, including behavioral health, digital health therapy, dentistry, nutrition, and prescription management.
Prediction 4: Asia will become a new local innovation center for global pharmaceutical and device manufacturers
Historically, most medical innovation channels flowed from the West to the East. Today, emerging markets have contributed 20-30% of the value of the pharmaceutical industry with double-digit growth (10-15%). A series of global pharmaceutical and device OEMs are trying to introduce products suitable for Asians’ physical fitness, lifestyle and affordable New products to subvert this trend. It is predicted that up to 10% of medical R&D investment in 2019 will be used for localized innovation in emerging Asian markets. For example, in terms of growth, the Asia-Pacific region is the strongest market, where more than 30% of advanced cell therapy trials worldwide are conducted.
In addition, we believe that the Asia-Pacific region will witness a revolution in genomics in the next few years, especially China, which will play a leading role in the field of Asian genomics. Under this ever-changing product development and geographic layout model, we believe that “independent "Cornered start-ups" (valued at over US$1 billion) and foreign direct investment will increase as the demand for medical services increases, the aging population increases, and income levels increase.
Prediction 5: Hospital professional analysis will shift from big data to meaningful small data
As the healthcare industry gradually adapts to the data management workflow, we predict that a large number of professional analytical solutions will stand out, such as investigating drug utilization, treatment variability, clinical trial eligibility, billing differences, and self-care for major chronic diseases plan.
It is estimated that by the end of 2019, 50% of healthcare companies will have resources dedicated to accessing, sharing and analyzing real-world evidence. In the future, the main goals of health care payers and providers using analytical capabilities will include: population health management (identifying individuals at risk), identifying and adopting the best treatment methods (low cost, excellent results), and patients, payers, The operation of doctors and procedures is automated. In addition, the integration of artificial intelligence and analytical capabilities will continue to promote mainstream applications that enhance analytical capabilities in the next 2-3 years.
Prediction 6: Healthcare will dominate in the field of voice applications
Healthcare is at a tipping point-Nuance, Orbita, professional voice companies, and technology giants Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft are developing voice technologies suitable for the healthcare industry. We expect that in 2019, as these technology giants compete fiercely on voice solutions, healthcare voice and chatbot applications that meet HIPAA standards will become mainstream. However, the current level of development of voice technology makes it only suitable for some limited voice applications, such as fast medical scribes and guided interaction based on transcription voice, which is not suitable for the transmission of long messages, but the future will apply voice technology to elderly care , Chronic disease management and other clinical reviews, and doctor’s assistant applications will provide growth opportunities for it.
Prediction 7: Blockchain will transform from hype to realize initial commercial value and generate ROI
In 2019, the blockchain will shift from the initial hype to the early commercial deployment, especially the initial return on investment (ROI) will be demonstrated in key enterprise B2B projects. It is expected that by the end of 2019, 5%-10% of healthcare enterprise blockchain applications will shift from the pilot phase to partial/limited commercial availability, while companies such as Change Healthcare, Hash Health and Guardtime will continue to expand their already commercialized Blockchain application.
In addition, by the end of 2019, the healthcare ICO (Initial Coin Offering, the act of raising general digital currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum) for healthcare ICOs and the selective loss of proof-of-concept for startups will eventually produce a small amount of money. Prospective commercial use cases, which will attract early adopters who are waiting for the final opportunity to create a much-needed network effect in the medical field, and the debate will shift to how and where blockchain technology can be used in the medical field.
Prediction 8: Innovative private insurance models shake up the medical payer industry
It is undeniable that the current medical insurance policy is outdated due to the inability to meet individual needs. Therefore, the growth rate of the medical insurance industry in 2018 is expected to be less than 1.5%. In order to ensure future global growth, many insurance companies have begun to provide data- and digital-driven medical services to their policyholders to enhance their personalized experience and reduce potential claims costs. It is expected that by the end of 2019, 5-10% of medical insurance plans will be linked to lifestyle and health data-driven interactive policies in some form. Research by Frost & Sullivan, a global corporate growth consulting firm, shows that interactive policies will continue to be popular around the world because it enables insurance companies to use user personal data to personalize premiums and generate discounts or rewards.